War in Ukraine reaches pivotal moment that could determine long-term outcome, intelligence officials say

Western intelligence and military officials believe Russia's war in Ukraine is in a critical stage that could determine the long-term outcome of the conflict, according to multiple sources familiar with US and other Western intelligence.
Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration that these vital munitions appear to be trickling into the fight piecemeal -- and have raised fears that Western commitment may be softening at a decisive moment.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy issues a joint statement with European Commission President Ursula in Kyiv, Ukraine June 11, 2022.
Western officials broadly believe that Russia is in a more favorable position in the east, based solely on mass.
A preference for Soviet systemsUS officials insist that Western arms are still flowing to the front lines of the fight.
But local reports of weapons shortages -- and frustrated pleas from Ukrainian officials on the front lines -- have raised questions about how effectively supply lines are running.
In some cases, according to one source familiar with US intelligence, Ukraine is simply opting not to use the unfamiliar Western systems.
The senior defense official would say only that the system will enter Ukraine "soon."
The senior defense official would say only that the system will enter Ukraine "soon."
That blind spot is in part because Ukraine doesn't tell the West everything, Western officials say.
And because the fighting is concentrated in such a small area relatively close to Russia, Western intelligence services don't have the same visibility that they do elsewhere.
Predicting Putin's next moveMeanwhile, US and other Western officials see no sign that Putin's commitment to prosecuting the costly war has diminished.
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