How Republicans could still blow the 2022 midterm elections
Republicans were ahead by an average of 4 points in the two polls CNN released in May that included this question.
When we examine this latest CNN poll more closely, we get a very good idea of why Democrats are even with Republicans on the generic ballot.
Biden's favorable rating in the poll was just 38% among those who were asked the generic ballot question.
It turns out that 33% of the electorate holds a favorable view of Republicans and does not have a favorable view of Biden.
The Republicans are winning this group on the generic ballot, 96% to 2%.
Likewise, 36% of the electorate holds a favorable view of Biden and doesn't have a favorable view of Republicans.
Democrats are crushing among this group on the generic ballot, 94% to 1%.
The other big chunk of the electorate (29%) is made up of those who like neither Biden nor the Republicans.
These voters are more divided in their generic ballot preferences, with Republicans at 42% and Democrats at 35%.
Yet, these same voters are going 48% to 39% for Democrats on the generic ballot.
Republicans have generally been better off without him in the news, and the same is true for Trump himself.
Republican voters may be seeing Trump attract all this negative attention and wonder whether it is worth hitching a ride again to his electoral wagon.