Analysis: Which way is the wind blowing for control of the House?

What's a competitive district?
In the current situation, just 34 of the 435 seats -- less than 10% -- are competitive districts, down 17 from when the maps were lasted used in 2020.
For the purposes of this CNN analysis, which applied 2020 election results to newly drawn districts, "competitive" refers to districts that either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump won in 2020 by 5 percentage points or less.
The competitive landscape of 34 districts in the CNN analysis is more than enough to swing control of the 435-member House of Representatives, and a wave in either direction could even put districts that were not competitive in previous elections in play.
But there are 10 fewer competitive seats in Texas.
Democrats capitalized in Illinois , where there are three new Democratic-leaning seats, one less Republican-leaning seat, and zero competitive districts.
Fewer competitive districts.
"There might be fewer swing districts, but that doesn't mean there are fewer competitive races," Inside Elections editor Nathan Gonzales, a CNN analyst, told me in an email.
There are marginally fewer districts that are very safe for Democrats and more districts where Biden won by between 2 and 7 percentage points.
A wave could reach deep into Biden territoryThere is a difference between competitive seats, which have been declining, and competitive races, of which there can be many.
Even as parties have engineered fewer competitive districts, control of Congress has changed hands with more regularity -- three times since 2002 and decent odds for a fourth in November, compared with just once from 1972 to 2000.
One reason: incumbents have less power and there is a lot more churn in even moderately competitive districts.
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